Airline capacity increases clearly favour the East

European airline capacity: September 2011

Source: OAG Max Online for w/c 6 September 2010 and w/c 5 September 2011.

Despite growing economic uncertainty across Europe, most of the region’s nations continue to report growth in airline seat capacity this September, according to anna.aero’s analysis of OAG schedule data. Overall, scheduled seat capacity is up 5.3% in the first week of September compared with the same period in 2010. Of the 36 largest country markets, just four have seen a year-on-year reduction in scheduled seat capacity.

This includes Germany, which finally appears to be feeling the effects of the air travel tax introduced at the beginning of the year. Passenger numbers at German airports in the first seven months of 2011 were actually up 6%, but with low-cost airlines suffering in particular and the imminent downsizing of airberlin, many smaller German airports are facing an uncertain future. However, this does not include Lufthansa’s two hubs at Frankfurt and Munich; the former will open a new runway in a matter of weeks, while the latter has been given permission to proceed with plans for a third runway.

Apart from Germany, the other four big European air travel markets (France, Italy, Spain and the UK) are also all growing at less than the overall average, with Italy (+4.4%) outperforming Spain (+2.7%), the UK (+2.0%) and France (+0.8%). The other countries with a decline in seat capacity are Ireland, Malta and Romania. Ireland has seen Ryanair reducing capacity, while Air Malta and Tarom have also been cutting capacity (both reported 9% declines in ASKs in July according to AEA figures). Though too small to feature in the graph, Slovakia actually reported the steepest fall in scheduled seat capacity at 14.3%.

Highest growth rates in Northern and Eastern regions

So if the big markets are all growing at below the average, where is growth coming from? The answer is from a mix of Scandinavian and Baltic countries, as well as Russia and the CIS. Three smaller country markets are reporting impressive year-on-year capacity growth of over 30%; Iceland, Estonia and Azerbaijan. Iceland appears to be taking advantage of last year’s notoriety as the source of the volcanic ash cloud (that disrupted European airspace in April) to stimulate tourism to its country. Tallinn airport is benefiting from a raft of new low-cost services provided by Ryanair, while Azerbaijan’s importance in the global energy market appears to be stimulating traffic, which now even includes a twice-weekly flight to Aberdeen in Scotland, another centre of the energy industry.

While these three country markets are relatively small, Turkey and Russia are Europe’s sixth and seventh biggest aviation markets, and in September they are reporting year-on-year capacity growth of 24.6% and 21.3% respectively. Turkey continues to benefit from the global ambitions of its flag-carrier Turkish Airlines, which is a key member of the Star Alliance, while low-cost carrier Pegasus is also expanding domestically and internationally. Russia’s airline industry, despite some ongoing concerns about safety, continues to see significant growth thanks to carriers such as Transaero and UTair. Nearby Ukraine is also growing fast as it prepares to co-host next year’s European football championships. Ukraine International Airways (+38.6%) and Aerosvit (+104.5%) are the two fastest growing airlines so far in 2011 among the 30-plus members of the Association of European Airlines.


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