SPC AC 101943

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0243 PM CDT Fri May 10 2024

   Valid 102000Z - 111200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   THE CAROLINAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Damaging winds of 60-70 mph and large hail of 1-1.75 inches remain
   possible this afternoon/evening across southern North Carolina and
   northeast South Carolina.

   ...Discussion...
   Aside from some adjustments to the thunder lines to account for
   current/evolving convection, no appreciable changes to the outlook
   appear to be required at this time.

   ..Goss.. 05/10/2024

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Fri May 10 2024/

   ...Carolinas this afternoon/evening...
   A midlevel shortwave trough over the OH Valley will move
   southeastward to the Carolinas by this evening with an accompanying
   surface cold front.  Surface heating in the wake of debris
   cloudiness with the weakening MCS to the south and boundary-layer
   dewpoints in the 60s will contribute to a corridor of moderate
   buoyancy (MLCAPE near 1500 J/kg) ahead of the front.  Thunderstorm
   development is expected by early-mid afternoon along and ahead of
   the cold front and a diffuse pre-frontal trough across northern
   SC/southern NC, and storms will subsequently spread southeastward
   through this evening.  The moderate buoyancy, steepening low-level
   lapse rates, and largely straight hodographs with ~50 kt midlevel
   flow will favor damaging winds of 60-70 mph and isolated large hail
   of 1-1.75 inches in diameter as the main threats with a mix of
   supercells and line segments.

   ...Northeast Gulf coast and FL through this evening...
   The initial MCS with damaging winds has now weakened and moved off
   the Atlantic coast, with a band of elevated convection persisting to
   the west in a zone of warm advection atop the trailing cold pool. 
   There will be a low-end hail threat with the elevated storms from
   the FL Panhandle into north FL today, prior to the storms weakening
   later this afternoon.  Additional storm development along the
   outflow boundary across the FL peninsula is somewhat uncertain,
   given the observed tendency for low-level flow to veer to
   west-northwesterly across central FL which suggests only
   weak/shallow ascent along the boundary.  Overall, any lingering
   severe threat should remain marginal through the afternoon.

   ...Upper MS Valley...
   A midlevel trough over northern MN will continue to dig
   southeastward over the upper MS Valley through this evening. 
   Despite limited low-level moisture, surface heating/steepening
   low-level lapse rates and ascent preceding the midlevel trough will
   support a band of low-topped convection from mid afternoon through
   late evening.  The stronger storms will be capable of producing
   isolated wind damage 

   ...Edwards Plateau in TX today...
   Though an isolated/elevated storm could occur today well to the
   north of the surface cold front, buoyancy appears fairly limited
   where storm formation is more probable.  As such, severe storms
   appear unlikely (and any storm splits off the high terrain in Mexico
   are unlikely to remain severe after crossing the international
   border).

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