Weather and climate change

Headline:

Changeable this week with spells of rain and showers.

Today:

A band of rain gradually spreads into southern and western parts of the UK, with some showers across northern Scotland. Elsewhere will be largely dry with spells of sunshine. Cooler under the rain but staying warm in the sunshine.

Tonight:

Rain will move into the rest of England and also southern and western Scotland. Clear spells ahead of the rain band, with clearer but showery weather following in the southwest.

Tuesday:

Largely dry and bright across the far north, with bright spells and showers across southern and western areas. Rather cloudy elsewhere with outbreaks of rain, turning heavy in places.

Outlook for Wednesday to Friday:

Remaining changeable with a mix of sunshine and showers. The showers heavy at times, with perhaps some longer spells of rain at times. Temperatures falling back to closer to average.

Updated: 05:00 (UTC+1) on Mon 13 May 2024

Changeable with showers developing by day across the UK through the end of the week and over the weekend. The heaviest showers and greatest risk of thunderstorms across southern parts. Temperatures generally around or just a little above average, though with winds tending to be light, still feeling warm in sunnier areas. Over the weekend there are signs that showers may start to ease from the north with drier, more settled conditions probably becoming established for a time. Confidence lowers into the following week with signals unclear how prolonged the influence of higher pressure will be. So after a potentially more settled spell of weather, unsettled conditions are likely to return during the week with the wettest conditions in the west. Above average temperatures more likely than below.

Updated: 15:00 (UTC+1) on Sun 12 May 2024

Signals during this period are weak and offer limited guidance beyond climatology. Similar weather conditions to those of the preceding few days are most likely to characterise this period to the end of May; a mixture of unsettled periods with rain and showers and settled interludes in-between. By early June, the chances of above and below average rainfall are evenly balanced. There is a slightly higher likelihood of above average temperatures compared with below average temperatures, such that the chance of hot spells, although still very small, is slightly higher than normal too.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC+1) on Sun 12 May 2024