— Evan Osnos,
When Tyranny Takes Hold:
Xu Hongci’s experiences in China show that autocracy demands collaborators, New Yorker
—
As Bad As It Is, the Electoral College Could Get Even Worse (via azspot)
As Josh Barro pointed out, there’s a world of difference between Democrats demanding hearings on Russian hacking and using the latest revelations as One Weird Trick to change the electoral outcome. The former is necessary, the latter is a waste of energy.
(via azspot)
— People who argue for withholding judgement on the Trump administration.
Chart via Kevin Drum. Two lies in one sentence seems to be the going ratio for the incoming Trump administration.
His supporters are people, not caricatures. They feel marginalized economically, politically, and socially; they see a world different from the one they think should exist. Many non-Trump supporters are also concerned about the current economic and political state of our planet and its implications for a stable future for our children.
What differentiates me from many of the Trump supporters I met this weekend is that their concerns for our future have led to an overwhelming need to see all of our problems as someone else’s fault…
Trump’s supporters, though, love him for his outrageous suggestions; it provides them with a sense of empowerment and control. And his lack of specificity allows each person to hear what they want to hear…But it was worth the risk to me to show them that their insecurities about Muslims were unfounded. It was worth it to humanize Muslims for them. And it was worth it, to me, to recognize their humanity, too
"—
Kaddie Abdul, “I went to a Trump rally in my hijab. His supporters aren’t just racist caricatures”
My (lukewarm) hot take on this:
1. Donald Trump is human garbage, but his supporters are all kinds of people. Much of the media treats his backers with a kind of class-ist condescension and disgust that few deserve.
2. Some Trump supporters can be persuaded to back center-left alternatives, and some nominally center-left voters are vulnerable to becoming Trump supporters. “Bernie is my No. 1 choice, and Trump is No. 2. They’re not that different,” said one dude who isn’t as unrepresentative as one would hope. Also, the far-right European parties have their greatest success among voters who previously voted for the organized left. Failing to engage with Trump supporters is a recipe for disaster.
3. However, not everyone can be converted, and frankly, some portion of the Trump base deserves to be shamed and marginalized. As I’ve written before, when a Trump backer says, “We have no spirit. Boys become trannies, grass-eaters. This has a major consequence on our confidence as a nation.” (I read Trump supporter Twitter so you don’t have to). And a Sanders-backer replies with, “I hear you, we have to break up the big Wall Street banks. And he says, ”Uh, no, LOL, my problem is that ‘Rapefugees’ are running amok.“ And I respond with, "Wow, you must have a lot of economic anxiety!” … Well, obviously this is not a productive conversation and I’m being obtuse about this voter’s real motivations.
4. What else is there to do but try and convince Trump supporters that there’s a better way: ignore them and hope it all goes away? Console oneself with the feeling of moral superiority while losing the election? However difficult the task (especially given the point above), there’s no alternative to trying to change people’s mind.
— Washington Post, August 31, 1978, via Rick Perlstein
—
President Obama, SOTU
Devil’s in the details, but wage insurance sounds great. Wholeheartedly endorse.
As for government retraining schemes, the open secret is that, unfortunately, they don’t do much to raise wages or reduce unemployment.
Barnow and Smith (2008) [PDF] give a brief history of job training programs:
In addition to the public employment programs of the Great Depression, the Manpower Development and Training Act (MDTA) [1962-172], the Comprehensive Employment and Training Act (CETA) [1973-1982], the Job Training Partnership Act (JTPA) [1982- 1998] and the Workforce Investment Act (WIA) [1998-present] have provided vocational training, along with remedial education, subsidized on-the-job training and job search assistance to disadvantaged youth and adults as well as displaced workers.
And find that the results are extremely modest. From one 1996 study of JTPA:
U.S. General Accounting Office provides impact estimates for five years after random assignment based on Social Security earnings data. They find stable impacts of around $800 per year for adult (22 and older) men and women which lose statistical significance over time. In contrast, the estimates for male and female youth remain resolutely near zero throughout the follow-up period.
An $800 income boost that becomes statistically insignificant after 5 years and does nothing for young people.
Barnow and Smith conclude:
First, most employment and training programs have either no impact or modest positive impacts. Many if not most do not pass careful social cost-benefit tests, though some that fail may be worth doing on equity grounds. Existing evaluations have important analytic limitations that bias them in favor of programs with short-term impacts and large spillover effects.
All this sucks, because at least in the abstract, job training is a bi-partisan solution to stagnant wages.
Good news is that there is a solid way to raise incomes: a Federal Reserve that prioritizes a tight labor market and wage subsidies/EITC/basic income for all those whose market wages aren’t enough to guarantee economic security.
— Bertrand Russell, The Conquest of Happiness
An old classic
Went to a Quaker Christmas Pageant this weekend, so quakerprobs memes are now something I understand.
Via PPP, the trolliest of polling organizations:
30% of Republican primary voters nationally say they support bombing Agrabah. Agrabah is the country from Aladdin.
Dem primary voters were asked too. They oppose bombing ‘it’ 36/19, while GOP supports bombing ‘it’ 30/13.
Trump is at 45% with Republicans who want to bomb Agrabah and only 22% with ones who don’t want to bomb Agrabah.
I wonder if there’s research on the prevalence of complete junk replies in surveys – like how many people will give 3 to the question “what’s eight minus two?” Though I doubt this is what’s happening here. More like a combo of voters in both parties not wanting to display their ignorance about the political situation in Agrabah together with a genuinely higher level of bellicosity within the GOP.
Dear British people, Recognizing that the House of Lords is an anachronism and that upper houses are a bad idea in terms of democratic responsibility, do you realize how lucky you are to live in a country where you can aspire to be a Shadow Lord? DO YOU?
I came across this chart today via Nicholas Christakis.
Impressive declines in child-mortality is one of the ways the world has gotten dramatically better over the last century. Today, child mortality in most wealthy countries is below 5 per 1,000 live births.
The US does considerably worse, mostly as a result of large geographic and racial disparities.
Which, to me, is another reason to cringe every time a “let the South secede” or “red staters are real the welfare queens” meme spreads in the wake of some awful policy or statement concocted by a southern, conservative politician.
Whatever you think of that terrible-pol-of-the-moment, he will be fine post-secession. He’ll be fine after rich blue states have stopped wealth transfers to poorer red states. He’ll be fine after the Jesusland meme makes another pass through the internet. But the disadvantaged constituents represented by that terrible pol will not be fine. They need the help of a national polity that aim to protect the worst-off among us. Any kind of politics that isn’t geared toward the interests of parents of vulnerable infants in Mississippi doesn’t deserve the name “liberalism” or “social justice.”
Hi, I'm Ilya Gerner. I post mainly about politics and public policy.
I have lots of opinions...some of them are even open to change. Feel free to message me on Twitter (@igerner) or email at ilyagerner at gmail dot com.
