SPC AC 091724

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1224 PM CDT Thu May 09 2024

   Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   THE SOUTHEAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms appear possible Friday
   across parts of the Southeast. Damaging winds should be the main
   threat.

   ...Southeast...

   Uncertainty is the prevailing theme for Friday's forecast,
   especially across FL/GA. Forecast guidance continues to depict an
   MCS somewhere in the vicinity of north FL into southern GA moving
   offshore by midday. The evolution of this convection in the Day
   1/Thu period into the early portions of the Day 2/Fri period will
   have a large influence on overall severe potential. A damaging wind
   risk may accompany this morning MCS as it develops east through the
   morning.

   If the MCS clears the region early enough, airmass recovery may
   occur ahead of a southeast-advancing cold front extending from
   central VA/NC southwest to the central Gulf Coast at midday. Storms
   may redevelop ahead of the front, or along any outflow from morning
   convection if airmass recovery can occur across northern FL/southern
   GA. This scenario remains uncertain, but damaging gusts and hail
   could occur with this activity.

   Isolated to scattered storm development is more likely ahead of the
   front into parts of the eastern Carolinas where the boundary-layer
   should remain mostly undisturbed from morning convection. More
   modest vertical shear/instability is expected with northward extent,
   but locally strong gusts and marginally severe hail will be possible
   with storms across the Carolinas.

   ...South-Central TX...

   A west-to-east oriented cold front will stall across south-central
   TX during the afternoon. Large-scale ascent will remain nebulous,
   but modest easterly low-level flow will impinge on the higher
   terrain of northern Mexico within a very moist boundary-layer
   (dewpoints in the low 70s F south of the boundary). A narrow zone of
   strong destabilization is forecast ahead of the surface boundary,
   and a few strong to severe thunderstorms may develop either along
   the cold front, or across northern Mexico in the low-level upslope
   flow regime. While the risk remains somewhat conditional, should
   storms develop in this environment, large hail and strong gusts will
   be possible.

   ...Upper Midwest...

   A compact upper shortwave trough will develop southward across the
   region through early evening. As this occurs, a belt of enhanced
   northwesterly flow aloft will overspread the area. Boundary-layer
   moisture will remain limited, but cool temperatures aloft will
   support modest midlevel lapse rates and weak destabilization (less
   than 500 J/kg MLCAPE). Fast moving, and somewhat shallow convection
   is expected to develop in this regime. Forecast soundings indicated
   inverted-v sub-cloud thermodynamic profiles characterized by steep
   low-level lapse rates and deep boundary-layer mixing. Occasional
   strong gusts will be possible with this activity during the
   afternoon into early evening.

   ..Leitman.. 05/09/2024

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