Expert poll: Mortgage rate trend predictions for June 6 - 12, 2024
Written by
| Go up | 27% |
|---|---|
| Stay the same | 7% |
| Go down | 67% |
Rates will move downward in the next week, says the majority of rate watchers polled by Bankrate.
Of those polled, 67 percent of respondents predict rates to decrease, 27 percent expect rates to rise and just 7 percent predict rates will stay flat.
The average 30-year fixed rate was 7.08 percent as of June 5, according to Bankrate’s national survey of large lenders, down from last week’s average of 7.17.
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Rate Trend Index
Experts predict where mortgage rates are headed
Week of June 6 - 12, 2024
| Go up | 27% |
|---|---|
| Stay the same | 7% |
| Go down | 67% |
That sound you hear is mortgage rates dropping. The rising rates from April were a head-fake. The longer-term trend in rates is down.
— Dan Green, Homebuyer.com
27% say rates will go up
Denise McManus
Global Real Estate Advisor, Licensed Lender, Engel & Voelkers
The market is so dicey and running in reverse of what we would expect with some of the most recent data. For example, we know inflation is still an issue, yet “job quits” or people quitting their jobs was higher than expected and the labor market remains strong. In a typical market, this alone would cause rates to dip. But that didn’t happen. Still more data to come. With this being said, I am conservatively calling rates to be choppy in the next week, with a trend downward.
Sean P. Salter, Ph.D.
Associate Professor of Finance and Dale Carnegie Trainer, Middle Tennessee State University , Murfreesboro , TN
Higher. Rates ticked up last week following a brief reprieve, and the general upward trend that has persisted for the first half of 2024 reasserted itself. The 10-year Treasury rate has been up and down, so I don’t believe we can read too much into that connection right now. Recent economic data is pointing to the Fed maintaining its rate levels at next week’s meeting, and we will also get a better picture of the Fed’s economic outlook. It’s very possible that rates will tick up again this week but [I] think that’s just a reflection of the market bracing for another round of “will they or won’t they” (cut rates). Week-to-week fluctuations aside, I don’t see a change in the overall trajectory of rates unless we get some significant action from the Fed.
Bennie Waller
William Cary Hulsey Fellow, Culverhouse College of Business, University of Alabama , AL
Mortgage rates will likely tick upward given inflation data.
67% say rates will go down
Melissa Cohn
Regional Vice President, William Raveis Mortgage
Mortgage rates are going down this week. Bonds continue to rally as a result of a string of data pointing to a weakening economy. Subdued jobs numbers (new jobs and job openings), weaker manufacturing data and last week’s PCE data have sent yields tumbling by .30 percent in the past week. Mortgage rates have followed suit. The real estate market is cheering!
Heather Devoto
Vice President, Branch Manager, First Home Mortgage , McLean , VA
I’m anticipating a decline in rates during the week ahead as traders react to an updated picture of the labor market.
Dan Green
CEO, Homebuyer.com , Cincinnati , Ohio
That sound you hear is mortgage rates dropping. The rising rates from April were a head-fake. The longer-term trend in rates is down.
Ken H. Johnson
Real estate economist, Florida Atlantic University
The spread between the yield on 10-year Treasurys and 30-year mortgage rates widens as the yield curve on government debt flattens. Thus, while the yield decline in the 10-year in recent days should lead to lower mortgage rates next week, the current historically flat yield curve does not bode well for mortgage rates in the near future. Said another way, we should not expect mortgage rates to drop significantly any time soon.
Greg McBride
CFA, chief financial analyst, Bankrate.com
The mortgage rate yo-yo continues, with rates moving lower and reversing last week’s rise. But a jobs report and a Fed meeting in the next week represent two potential catalysts for a more significant move in mortgage rates.
Joel Naroff
President and chief economist, Naroff Economic Advisors , Holland , Pennsylvania
Down. Both inflation and economy moderated and the Fed could note that at their next meeting.
Les Parker
CMB, managing director, Transformational Mortgage Solutions , Jacksonville , Florida
Mortgage rates will go down. Here's a parody of "Band on the Run," the 1971 Paul McCartney and Wings hit. "Bulls on the run, bulls on the run. The deflation man and banking clan are searching everyone, for the bulls on the run." Look for the global slowdown and modestly ebbing prices (declining inflation), and [the] Central Bankers’ easing season fast approaching to cause mortgage rates to fall.
Elizabeth Rose
Mortgage planner, Legacy Mortgage , Dallas , TX
Rates - lower. The bond market has been improving the past few days and now talks of a rate cut late this year give additional lift to bonds, and rates improve. The economy is showing signs of slowing which is good for bonds and home loan rates.
Robert J. Smith
Head of Real Estate, Advisor Credit Exchange
A slight downward drift will continue pending the jobs data coming out this Friday.
7% say unchanged–
Dick Lepre
Senior Loan Officer, Realfinity , Alamo , CA
Trend: Flat. With the Fed keeping rates high, mortgages have been constrained to the 7.0 percent to 7.25 percent range. Look for them to stay at the bottom of that range this week.