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May 22, 2024
Clone - Asia Open - Overnight Highlights
May 22, 2024 12:00 AM UTC
EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform mostly stronger against the USD as the greenback is trading broadly stronger against majors. THB saw the largest losses of 0.78%, followed by PHP 0.61%, KRW 0.55%, MYR 0.23%, TWD 0.14%, IDR 0.13%, HKD 0.08% and CNY 0.03%; the only winners are INR 0.03% and SGD 0.01
May 21, 2024
Preview: Due May 30 - U.S. Preliminary (Second) Estimate Q1 GDP - Slower still on retail and inventories
May 21, 2024 4:03 PM UTC
We expect the second (preliminary) estimate for Q1 GDP to be revised lower to 1.2% annualized from the advance estimate of 1.6%. This will remain the slowest quarter since a decline in Q2 2022. Our current estimate for Q2 is for a rise of 2.0%.
Preview: Due May 22 - U.S. April Existing Home Sales - No signals for a strong move
May 21, 2024 3:09 PM UTC
We expect existing home sales to be unchanged at 4.19m in April, pausing after a 4.3% decline in March corrected a strong 9.5% increase in February. We expect to see trend move lower in the coming months, but there are no clear signals for a second straight decline in April.
German Data Preview (May 29): Inflation to Rise Again Albeit Amid Soft Core Rate Trends?
May 21, 2024 2:08 PM UTC
As we have repeatedly underlined, base effects continue to distort the German HICP/CPI readings and the path down for inflation has not been smooth. This will be even more clearly the case in the looming May numbers where a second successive and slightly larger rise in the headline rate is on the
Canada April CPI - Continued progress in the BoC core rates
May 21, 2024 12:56 PM UTC
April’s Canadian CPI at 2.7% yr/yr from 2.9% is in line with market expectations and shows subdued data on the month and continued progress in reducing the Bank of Canada’s core rates. The headline yr/yr pace is the lowest since March 2021. The data should sustain hopes for a June BoC easing.
BOE: August Expected But Could be June and Not Enough Discounted
May 21, 2024 11:11 AM UTC
The market is not discounting enough BOE easing in the next 6-18 months during which we see a cumulative 175-200bps of cuts. The BOE is swinging from a reactive to proactive policy stance and will take account of the prospects of further wage and service inflation slowing. UK fiscal tightening w
The Aussie Chapter 4: Chinese Proxy
May 21, 2024 12:00 AM UTC
In "The Aussie", we will look into the "well-known "correlation among the Aussie and well-known benchmark to give our readers a closer look towards factors that have been affecting the movement of the Australian Dollar. In Chapter 4, we will look into the performance of the Aussie relative to the Ch
May 20, 2024
FOMC Minutes from May 1 to Suggest Restrictive for Longer
May 20, 2024 7:15 PM UTC
FOMC minutes from May 1 are due on May 22. The minutes are likely to be a more hawkish than those from the March 20 meeting released on April 10, given the strength of data released between the two meetings. Restrictive policy for longer so likely to be the message, but with no clear timetable. Soft
Preview: Due May 31 - Canada Q1/March GDP - A stronger quarter assisted by the end of strikes
May 20, 2024 3:52 PM UTC
We expect Q1 Canadian GDP to rise by 2.0% annualized, a little above a 1.5% estimate made with the Bank of Canada’s April Monetary Policy Report. We expect an unchanged monthly total for March, with Q1’s growth inflated by a January rebound from a strike-depressed Q4.
Mexico: Exports Loosing Traction
May 20, 2024 2:38 PM UTC
At the beginning of the year, Mexico's exports are losing traction, stagnating as imports surpass exports. This could be due to adjustments to U.S. demand and inflation effects. With internal demand cooling and the U.S. economy decelerating, growth may shift to Mexico’s internal economy, bolstered
Preview: Due May 21 - Canada April CPI - Headline stable but core rates falling
May 20, 2024 12:15 PM UTC
April CPI will be closely watched as the last CPI release before the June 5 Bank of Canada meeting. We expect the yr/yr pace to be unchanged at March's 2.9% pace which was also the pace in January before February saw a brief dip to 2.8%. However we expect continued steady downward progress in the Bo