Daily Morning Commentary
Details on upcoming meetings below. The seed plot tours will have marketing meetings and company updates after the tours are finished (more details will be added on locations soon):
Tuesday May 28th @ 8:00 a.m. in the NWGG Annex Building (formerly Clancy's Storage, just West of WW Seed Plant) - informational meeting on Jefe seed and rye contamination for anyone interested.
Monday June 10th @ 5:00 p.m. - Walla Walla seed plot - Pizza and beverages will be provided.
Wednesday June 12th @ 9:30 a.m. - Lancaster seed plot - Lunch will be provided after the tour.
Friday June 14th @ 8:00 a.m. - Dayton seed plot - Coffee and pastries will be provided.
5/24/2024
Today was going to be a toss-up for market direction almost no matter what. Wheat contracts have flown up almost $2 in 2.5 months, we've run out of "new news" for bullish traders to feed on, and we've got a long weekend upon us with no markets open until Monday night. If there was unease heading into the long weekend, maybe we'd see some buying, but as of 8:00 a.m. we're unchanged to down a dime.
French wheat conditions declined a tiny bit this week to 63%. I'd have put money (not mine) that they'd start to decline more after all of the rain of late, but I guess I'd have lost that money (not mine). Past 60-days of rainfall below:
I'm reminded that traders in the Midwest say, "wheat is a grass and grasses like water."
Interesting potential shift for AUS on the horizon - there are bunches of rain in the 8-15-day window for Western Australia, which had been the problem area for moisture to this point. Like getting an inch-or-two of rain at fall planting time, if you're curious:
Cool weather the feature for much of the wheat growing parts of the US for 10-days before flipping to warmer-than-normal:
The 7-day window for the US is full of mystery:
-Is it too late for the W KS/E CO crop to improve if it gets....2.5" of rain? Would it cause harm?
-Is all of that rain in the Corn Belt a detriment, given they'll need to finish planting soon?
-What would all that rain do to the already soggy SRW crop?
-Is anyone paying attention to how much better the MT/ND/SK/AB/MB crops are getting after ideal weather lately?
-How much rain will we REALLY get in the PNW?
-How are the Duke boys going to get out of this mess?
A couple of articles from Wednesday that I didn't get to share:
The above is huge. Or, at least, it might be. What does more yield in more places mean? The question is always "how are we going to feed x billion people" and the answer is always a foggy mess, depending upon whom you ask and what they mean to gain. I think (I try not to do so often, so don't hold this in too high of esteem) "gene edited" crops will be the norm in a decade and the last nation to adopt will be the biggest loser, but every nation that produces grain is going to be riding the razor's edge of popular opinion for a few years.
I think (oh man, not again) gene edited seeds could be the next "Roundup Moment" for agriculture. Place your bets now (not with my money).
Lastly, a little validation for something Byron and I have been talking about with folks for a bit. It's concerning for wheat to get too expensive, given we need to be relatively close to feed values for SWW to be a fluid mover into more than just the "inelastic export markets." Yes, I highlighted parts of it:
We're closed until Tuesday morning. Have a nice weekend.
-Cory