Daily Commentary
5/28/24
Wheat future are higher this morning, but off the highs seen during the initial open of the overnight session. CHI is up 7, KC is up 12, and MN is up 5. Row crops are struggling to get to the plus side of the market with Corn down 1, and Soybeans down 15. Canola futures are down 1 this morning. Paris wheat futures are down 5 Euros.
The U.S. Dollar is lower, Wall Street is lower, Crude is higher, and Gold is higher.
The wheat complexes continue to see underlying support from expected production issues in the Black Sea. IKAR once again lowered its Russian wheat production estimate. The agency cut another 2 mmt to 81.5 mmt, with exports sitting at an estimated 44.0 mmt. Russian May exports of wheat were at 3.8 mmt. Some 1.5-2.0 million hectares of Russian crop growing areas are estimated to have been affected by the late spring frost.
The European Commission for crop monitoring estimates 2024 EU soft wheat yields at 5.92 mt/ha vs 5.93 mt/ha seen in last month's report.
Traders are expecting to see winter wheat harvest progress moving along over the last week in this afternoon's crop progress report. The current 7-day weather outlook could slow things down for the Southern Plains.
Local cash markets were able to close out last week without values changing. Exporters off the PNW were saying it was a fairly quiet week on the buying and selling sides of the market. The recent increase to world wheat values is helping to support current values, but demand will be needed to keep prices where they are. Pressure could come quickly if exporters start to accumulate length with no where to sell.
Corn was seeing spillover support from wheat before the morning open. Traders are expecting to see planting progress at 85% complete this afternoon. Active weather patterns remain in the forecast with rain expected to fall from Texas to Minnesota. Harvest progress in South America is sluggish with 28% of the crop cut versus the 5-year average of 35%. The USDA reported a private sale of 215,000 mt of corn to Mexico this morning. 165,000 mt is for 23/24, and 50,000 mt is for 24/25.
Soybeans are under pressure as traders are expecting to see planting progress at 80% complete later today. Bean product markets are mixed with soybean meal lower and soybean oil higher. Rumors of China buying U.S. beans has been around for almost a week with no confirmation seen yet.
Get signed up to receive the daily commentary via email. Call your local office today to get on the list!
**********
MARKETS
MORNING FROM 9:30 - 11:10 A.M.
AFTERNOON FROM 2:30 - 4:30 P.M.
NO AFTERNOON MARKET ON FRIDAY
NON-HARVEST OFFICE HOURS
MON-THURS 7:30 a.m. - 5:00 p.m.
FRI 7:30 a.m. - 11:30 a.m.
CURRENT PROTEIN SCALES
DNS: +.05/-.10 PER 1/4% BASIS 14%
HRW: +.05/-.10 PER 1/2% BASIS 11.5%