Going to the Second Round
Winning while Losing
The results of the election also showed that the Brazilian population has a mind and a will of its own, and will not be easily bamboozled into accepting candidates that are sponsored by existing popular Presidents and governments without having a requisite amount of time to make a thoughtful decision.
The Presidential election, first round, produced no winner, as the effective election of a Presidential candidate requires 50% + 1 of valid votes. Dilma Rousseff, the candidate of the Workers Party, the existing government and President Lula came up short of the 50% necessary, receiving 46.8%.
Time has its way of changing perspectives, and if this result had been foreseen in May of this year when Dilma was not well known, and her association with President Lula was not as clearly understood as it is today, it would have been seen as a resounding victory for her. However, from the perspective of three weeks ago, when Dilma seemed poised for an almost certain first round victory, having been touched by a scandal involving her replacement as President Lula’s Chief of Staff, she has lost momentum.
The news of the election has been focused on the performance of Marina Silva, the Green Party Candidate who polled more than 19%, five percentage points higher than indications in recent polls, and more than 10 percent higher than the indications she had been receiving from early in the campaign through September. There are some of us, however, who expected Marina Silva to do better, earlier and the recent movement to support her being only surprising in its lateness. An articulate, intelligent and attractive candidate with a resumé that screams personal achievement through seriousness, thoughtfulness and consideration always had the right to be heard, and finally was. It is clear that in the waning days of the campaign the issue of abortion was raised by thousands of Padres and Bishops across the country who exhorted their flocks to vote for Marina, and they did.
The candidate of the PSDB and former Governor of the State of São Paulo, José Serra was the main beneficiary of Marina’s late surge, but he also did better than recent polls indicated, moving from 28% to the 33% in the last few weeks. Serra ran a campaign that was widely criticized due to his isolation as a candidate and his desire not to use debates to attack the Workers Party candidate, Dilma Rousseff. To be sure, Serra was in the unenviable situation of running against the record of a President whose personal popularity oscillated during the campaign between 75% and 80%, which imposed limits on his ability to criticize the existing government. Now, having reached the objective of a second round, which seemed lost a few weeks ago, Serra must adopt a more pro-active campaign, first wooing the supporters of Marina Silva (initial indications are that they will split 50% Serra to 30% Dilma) and perhaps even the official support of the Green Party, and using the explicit and personal support of former President, Fernando Henrique Cardoso and, if available, Aécio Neves, the popular former Governor, and now Senator of Minas Gerais.
It is worth noting that in their wisdom the Presidential electors of Brazil gave the then Governor of the State of São Paulo, Geraldo Alckmin a chance at a second round four years ago when he was the PSDB’s nominee against President Lula. Having taken the time for a closer look at Alckmin, the voters chose, resoundingly to stay with Lula, and Alckmin received less votes in the second round than he did in the first.
The possibility of a Serra victory, one would have to recognize, is still remote. But Dilma Rousseff’s campaign is built overwhelmingly on the charisma of Lula, and therefore, in personal terms her support is very shallow. That is what gives the opposition the hope today that the second round could give a second surprise.
Marina Silva
Marina Silva, Presidential Candidate
Marina Silva is the dark horse of the 2010 Presidential election. She has problems of name recognition among Brazilin voters who, notwithstanding her lengthy and notable career, is largely unknown. She has positioned herself as the Green Party candidate this year, although she was a member of the PT for 30 years, until she resigned in August of 2009.
She has a remarkable personal story being born into a family of eight children in the state of Acre which has a population of 700,000, or 0.3% of the total Brazilian population situated in 1.8% of Brazilian territory. Acre is in the Northwestern corner of Brazil, and borders with both Peru and Bolivia.
Marina Silva was not taught to read until she was 16 years old when she was sent to Acre`s capital, Rio Branco, due to illness. There, she learned to read, became a domestic servant, and later graduated from the Federal University of Acre in history. She joined the Partido Trabalhista-PT (Workers Party) in 1985.
In 1988 she became the vereador (local councilor) to receive most votes in Rio Branco. In 1990 she became a State Deputy, once again with a record vote, and in 1994 became, at the age of 36, the youngest Senator in the history of Brazil. In 1996 she won the coveted Goldman Award for Environmental achievement. In 2002 she was re-elected Senator, but was offered the Ministry of Environment in 2003 by the newly elected President, Luiz Ignacio Lula da Silva, which she accepted. A little more than five years later she resigned from the Government due to the lack of support for environmental projects. This policy change is often laid at the door of Dilma Rousseff with whom she had a number of policy disagreements.
In 2007 she won the Champions of the Earth prize from the United Nations, an award won also by Al Gore among others, and the Norwegian Sofia award in recognition of her work to limit deforestation in the Amazon.
After leaving the PT in 2009 she joined the Green Party with the obvious intent of becoming a Presidential candidate under their auspices. In the early months of her campaign she has counted on a 7% to 8% of voting intentions, which has since risen to 10% – 12% since Ciro Gomes has with drawn. She has shown ability to draw 14% to 15% in her home region of the center West, and higher than average percentages also in the more educated and environmentally committed South-East.
The reason that Brazil News Blog takes time to introduce Marina Silva is first because she is a Presidential contender representing a minority, but important sector of the community (The green party of England won their first seat in Parliament this month). She is a serious and dedicated person with multiple achievements, and thirdly, she is a woman who has a resume that allows her to know and understand more aspects of society, and thus politics than her Presidential competitors. We foresee a period, over the next few months where the Brazilian population become more aware of her as a candidate of stature, and will see this reflected in voting intentions. Whether she will become a bigger threat to Dilma or Jose Serra is a matter of conjecture. But we don`t doubt that she will undercut the traditional politics of Brazil and become a serious Presidential player.
Her challenge will be to develop the Green ticket not just as an environmental pressure group, but as a political party that can develop a wide ranging governing program that makes sense in competition with those of the PT and the PSDB. We have no doubt that she can succeed at this. She has made a headline grabbing start with the nomination of Guilherme Leal, owner and director of the cosmetics company Natura as her Vice Presidential candidate. She also has to make the best of a less than national structure for the Green Party where Fernando Gabeira, the Green candidate for President for the Governorship of Rio de Janeiro, has indicated that he may well vote for Jose Serra rather than his own Party`s candidate.
Marina Silva`s candidacy for President has started well, and we expect to see a significant increase in the number of voting intentions she will receive as the campaign develops.
Lula the Diplomat and Iran
Iran
The agreement reached yesterday between Iran, Turkey and Brazil has been greeted with reactions in the international community ranging from euphoria to indifference. Indeed, some countries have demonstrated two reactions one, closely followed by another. The first reaction is to praise the efforts of Brazil and Turkey and to see the agreement at least as a sign of good intentions on the part of Iran. The second reaction is to recognize, as did Bernard Kouchner, the Foreign Minister of France, that the agreement “does nothing to settle the problem posed by the Iranian nuclear program”.
The government of the USA did its best not to appear churlish by welcoming the agreement, with faint praise, as a positive step. However, like many other nations they pointed to Iran’s continued resolve to add to its manufacture of uranium that is at least 20% enriched was a continuing violation of United Nations Security Council Resolutions.
The agreement, however, was expected to give some breathing room to Iran while Western diplomats come to a consensus as to whether there is still a need to move forward on the sanctions plan already mooted. Russia’s reaction was important, and the Deputy Prime Minister, Sergei Ivanov who said after the announcement of the agreement that the Sanctions resolution should be voted soon anyway, and that Iran should “open up to Inspectors”. However, if the agreement was an attempt by Iran’s President Almedenejad to give China and Russia pause for thought as they have been less inclined to vote for sanctions than the other members of the Security Counsel, then, it would appear he has failed.
In further developments today, United States Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton has announced the text of a draft resolution to be submitted to the United Nations Security Counsel that repudiates the agreement made yesterday, and calls for sanctions. The resolution has the support of all of the five permanent members of the Security Counsel, the USA, the United Kingdom, France Russia and China, in addition to Germany, which is not a permanent member. Secretary Clinton stated, in a direct rebuff to the efforts of Brazil and Turkey that “I think this announcement is as convincing an answer to the efforts undertaken in Tehran over the last few days as any we could provide.” In other words, she, and the other members of the Security Counsel were not impressed.
The question, from the Brazil perspective, is whither the international credibility of President Lula. Is he a statesman with vision and patience, or a meddler in affairs he does not understand? Jose Alencar, not an unbiased bystander, but Brazil’s Vice President said, “Brazil is every day more respected in the international area, thanks to this simple citizen” (President Lula). However, sources in the US Senate were saying that Brazil is squandering its good will in the USA with its attempts to assume a more important diplomatic role in the world. With today’s news it appears that Lula’s diplomatic prowess appears to have been short-lived.
Presidents Lula and Almedinejad
Further Budget Cuts
Guido Mantega, Finance Minister
Late last week the Ministers of Planning and Finance announced that due to avoid the overheating of the economy, the government was cutting the budget by a further R$ 10 billion. The budget had been cut in March by R$ 21.8 billion. The major concerns of the government were the revision upward by most economists of the economic growth rate for 2010, above 7%. Mantega indicted that the economy in the first quarter was growing at a rate of between 8 and 10% per annum, a rate which is above the actual productive capacity of the Brazilian economy. The action taken by the government was an attempt to keep the rate about or below 7%. The readjustment of the minimum salary by 9.7% was expected to have a strong effect on consumption capacity and, on inflation.
The government has the choice of raising interest rates, or cutting its own expenses, and in the last few weeks has done both. At the April meeting of Banco Central`s committee on monetary policy (“Copom”), the Selic rate was raised from 8.75% to 9.5%. However, the news of the cuts was greeted with cynicism by some observers who noted the Treasury`s recent, confident presentation that the Government’s first quarter primary deficit could be reverted easily, and took these cuts as being evidence that the balancing of the government budget would not be so easy.
The cuts are made in future expenses, not yet detailed, and therefore the question of when these cuts will come into effect to reduce consumption is being discussed. For instance, it must not be forgotten that we are in a Presidential election year where the interest of the government is probably not in reducing consumer activity inordinately. Thus, doubts as to whether the cuts will affect economic growth this year have also caused economists to wonder whether interest rates would be further increased to combat inflation.
Other commentaries have suggested that a cut of, so far R$ 31.8 billion in government spending is too little too late to affect government expenses this year. The amount of R$ 40 billion was being suggested as the necessary amount of cuts, but that was tow months ago.
The position of the Brazil’s recovery from the World economic crisis has left the country with a number of weaknesses, notwithstanding an exemplary performance. Those weaknesses include burgeoning inflation, difficulty in balancing government accounts within projected goals, and a weak export sector.
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