DDS vloggers on oust-BBM mode

Duterte Diehard Supporters have been on oust-BBM mode for a while now. As far as I can tell, their grievances boil down to three issues:  BBM’s chacha project, the economic crunch, and BBM’s pivot away from China.

Of the three, I agree only with the chacha assessment. Malamang nga that the long-term goal is political change, from bicam to uni-parliamentary system, no VP needed, in aid of the Marcos dynasty reigning forever and ever. #NO to chacha indeed.

The economic crunch, however, is something else, and not one that can be credibly thrown at BBM alone. Last year pa lang, there was already this Reddit community saying that the “Living crisis is not just BBM’s fault,” reminding that Duterte was an epic fail, too.

mattventurer: People only blame duterte for red-tagging and human rights violations, pero not many have mentioned that Duterte failed to prepare our country for the future.

Walang ginawa si Duterte to improve agriculture sector. Walang ginawa si Duterte to improve education sector. Walang ginawa si Duterte to improve industries and manufacturing. Walang ginawa si Duterte to protect the environment. He failed his drug war! He failed to end contractualization. Philippines still flooded by corruption. https://www.reddit.com/r/Philippines/comments/

To be fair, I would edit that to “Walang nagawâ”…. he may have tried, or his people surely tried, to make a difference, but like the presidents before him, found the corrupt System practically impregnable to Change.  No quick fixes here.  Even before the pandemic.

Read also Boo Chanco’s “Energy policy failure.”

By the time Duterte came into power, new power plants were urgently needed to provide the baseload for the power grid. It was obvious only coal and natural gas can provide the dependable output to feed our growing demand for electricity. But on Oct. 27, 2020, Alfonso Cusi, Duterte’s energy secretary, declared a moratorium on the construction of coal power plants.

Most likely, the technocrats at DOE convinced Cusi that a coal moratorium will endear him to the noisy climate change people. Embracing renewable energy, or RE, is trendy.

… So, no new power plants went on line during Duterte’s time in office. We are now harvesting the bitter fruits of that incompetence in policy formulation. https://www.philstar.com/business/2024/04/24/2349921/energy-policy-failure

As for the allegation that it’s Atty. Liza the Fierce Lady and not PBBM who’s running government, parang eksaherado naman. I don’t doubt that she has some influence on her husband’s thinking, especially on legal matters, but not to the point of BBM being under-the-saya — the prez knows what he’s doing, whether we like it or don’t.  And really, I think she’s an improvement on Imelda whose “hole in the sky” and “true good beautiful” rhetoric drove me nuts. I don’t mind the fierce one’s candor, drawing the line at “bangag” and without whitewashing the “badshot”.

Which brings us to the China issue. Galit na galit ang mga DDS kay BBM for rescinding that “status quo” agreement with China and pivoting to the U.S. and Japan for help in stopping the bully from aggressively encroaching on our territorial waters and resources. They warn of war,  and insist on Duterte-like diplomacy as the only way to deal with China.  But that only means more of the same gray, if not grayer, tactics to drive us away from our own waters for good.

Read Rafael Alunan III‘s “Countering China’s modus operandi”.

ALUNAN.  In 1988, then Foreign Affairs Secretary Raul Manglapus sent me to Washington, D.C., to attend a conference on technology. I was impressed by the Chinese delegation. It boasted that China had a master plan to become a superpower in 50 years through technology and that it was underway. Hundreds of thousands of Chinese were sent yearly to the US and Europe for post-graduate studies to transform their country. So far, so good.

Superpowerdom was China’s goal; technology would be the means. Sun Tzu emphasized the importance of strategy and deception in warfare. China’s approach to exerting influence and gaining control of other countries often involves a combination of economic, political and cultural means, rather than overt military action. Through the years, the US was subjected to unrestricted warfare in the gray zone to weaken it from within and without.

… For a time, China lured us to its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), offering opportunities for economic cooperation and integration principally to buy influence and capitalize on potential debt traps. Fortunately, we saw through it and decided to drop out of the BRI last year. The pullout came amid tensions in the West Philippines Sea and China’s delaying tactics to conclude the long-delayed Code of Conduct in the South China Sea.

Freeing ourselves from China’s strategic influence and control requires a multifaceted approach, including but not limited to 1) strengthening institutional integrity, 2) reinforcing legal safeguards, 3) diversifying infrastructure partnerships, 4) promoting civil society engagement, 5) enhancing cybersecurity measures, 6) fortifying intelligence capabilities, 7) upscaling civic education and awareness, and 8) forging strong international partnerships.

The imperative here is to sanitize our ranks now with no time to lose, observe operational security (opsec) to keep secret what is secret, and engage those lurking in the shadows who are out to harm us with extraordinary measures before it’s too late. https://www.manilatimes.net/2024/04/23/opinion/columns/countering-chinas-modus-operandi/1942790

And this from Jose Ma. Montelibano, “China defies Deng Xiaoping warning”

“If one day China should change her color and turn into a superpower, if she too should play the tyrant in the world, and everywhere subject others to her bullying, aggression and exploitation, the people of the world should identify her … social-imperialism, expose it, oppose it and work together with the Chinese people to overthrow it.” ~ Deng Xiaoping speech at the United Nations, April 10, 1974

MONTELIBANO. Deng Xiaoping was a political survivor, a visionary, a street-wise leader, and obviously was profound. He could not have led China out of the dark ages into the irreversible journey towards superpower status by simple brute force (he used that, too). He had power and he knew how to wield it, but he had shrewdness, precision, and wisdom, too. He knew China would be a superpower, and he tried to warn those who would succeed him, and the world at large, that China could get drunk with power.

Instead of internal propaganda that would have restrained China’s rapid transition from vassal to world leader, Deng simply pushed the transition even faster. But he took the stage in the United Nations, as if to allay fears that China would one day go haywire, and delivered a prophecy hidden … in a warning, “If one day China should … play the tyrant … the people of the world should identify her social-imperialism, expose it, oppose it and work together with the Chinese people to overthrow it.”  https://opinion.inquirer.net/73236/china-defies-deng-xiaoping-warning

The National Interest

#AtinAngAyungin #AtinAngRecto

On the one hand, I’m glad former president Duterte and his Davao cohorts are on the side of more than 7 of 10 Filipinos vehemently against the Romualdez-Marcos chacha train(wreck).  On the other, I’m aghast that they’re so against PBBM rescinding Duterte’s “status quo” agreement  with China, the regional bully that some 7 of 10 Filipinos do not trust, and rightfully so, for obstreperously laying claim to and encroaching on our territorial waters and resources.

The threat, “that there will be trouble” if we dare bring construction and repair materials to the grounded BRP Sierra Madre in Ayungin, or if we dare dig for oil and gas in Recto, should not stop us from standing up for our rights the way Indonesia and Malaysia did two years ago. Read Jarius Bondoc‘s 2023 column on Recto (Reed) Bank. https://www.philstar.com/opinion/2023/08/30/2292356/drill-recto-gas-oil-now-our-national-survival

Recto is 120 miles from Palawan, well within the Philippines’ 200-mile exclusive economic zone. It’s 650 miles from Hainan, China’s nearest province, thus outside its EEZ. The Hague arbitral court affirmed that in 2016. China can’t claim it by (an) imagined “nine-dash line.”

Recto has proven reserves. In 2013 the US Energy Information Administration estimated it to hold 5.4 billion barrels of oil and 55.1 trillion cubic feet of gas. That’s 63.5 times more oil and 20.5 times more gas than Malampaya, whose lifespan is only 24 or so years.

The Philippine government has long awarded Service Contract-72, covering Recto. Manuel V. Pangilinan’s PXP Energy Corp. and subsidiary Forum Energy Ltd. are ready to drill.

Trespassing Philippine EEZ, Chinese gunboats chased Forum’s vessels away several times. In 2020 the Duterte admin contemplated joint exploration with China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC). Talks failed as CNOOC’s terms violated the Philippine Constitution.

Forum remobilized foreign partners to drill. President Rody Duterte stopped it after receiving a call from Beijing, [Justice Antonio] Carpio recounts. “Twice Forum lost millions of pesos in false starts. Let it proceed now under Philippine Navy protection. National survival depends on it.”

Defy China.

“Let’s do it the way Malaysia and Indonesia did two years ago,” Carpio proposes.

… Beijing also claims Malaysia’s EEZ and Indonesia’s Natuna Isles. Invoking our Hague ruling as support, Malaysia held naval exercises with the US and Australia while drilling oil nearby. Indonesia invited a US aircraft carrier to sail by while drilling in Natuna.

On both occasions Beijing shrieked about owning the entire South China Sea by historical right. Kuala Lumpur and Jakarta ignored it. They’re reaping benefits from their petroleum resources, Carpio notes.

The Philippines can install rigs while holding drills with the US Navy under the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement. As well, with the British Admiralty because Forum was incorporated in London. A petroleum-sufficient Philippines will ease world demand and prices.

And here’s Fr. Ranhilio Callangan Aquino in a recent Manila Times column: https://www.manilatimes.net/2024/04/17/opinion/columns/gentlemen-and-the-status-quo/1941929

To those who would have us tremble before China’s might, fearful that it may unleash its volley of munitions against us, Justice Antonio Carpio, who has studied both the facts and the law on this case, allays such fears. China will think long and hard before it pushes the button of hostilities because it is cognizant of the Mutual Defense Treaty, which both the Philippines and the United States understand it today. There are those who urge the Philippines to junk the treaty and have long touted the line that the MDT did not cover such scenarios as armed hostilities against the Philippines initiated by the PROC. We now know that to be untrue. The US-Philippines Bilateral Guidelines as well as recent public statements of US President Biden leave no doubt about this.

Lately, China has dealt “the victim card” — naively echoed by some Western news outlets and chat programs. It claims to be the victim of a scheme of encirclement by the US, Australia, Japan and India — quaintly called the Quad. But it will be good to remember that this strategic alliance was born not from some smoky bar where the leaders of these countries had nothing better to do than to conjure alliances to threaten other countries. It arose rather when it had become undeniable that China was relentless in its expansionism, when border tensions with India were approaching boiling point, when it became apparent that its Belt and Road Initiative had allowed it strategic access to points it deemed crucial for its maritime, military and political ambitions. [bold mine]

Notwithstanding the fact that the PROC has thumbed its nose at the arbitral ruling in favor of the Philippines, one will not fail to notice that in every discussion on the South China Sea-West Philippine Sea dispute, the arbitral judgment that was resoundingly in our country’s favor comes up because a binding legal pronouncement as to our rights is always significant and undeniably confers ascendancy on us. It is in this light that I have long advocated that the unresolved disputes over territory should now be the subject of a case before the International Court of Justice or by some other competent international forum.

If this seems like putting undue trust in the workings of international law, my riposte has been constant: It is only the adherence of the community of nations to a rules-based order, the dominance of international law, that the fundamental principle of sovereign equality of States can be a reality in a world of glaring inequalities.

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Rumblings by Iris Gonzales

Regional bully by Boo Chanco

A sellout of our sovereign rights by Joel Ruiz Butuyan

Can we defend our nation without America? Yes by Ricardo Saludo

Of disadvantageous treaties, sedition, and espionage by Jemy Gatdula

‘Coercive tactics’ by Ana Marie Pamintuan

The Senate’s Turn: NO to Chacha #7of10

Check out Pulse Asia’s March 2024 Nationwide Survey on Charter Change and weep for joy! Marami pala tayo!

Opposition to charter change is the predominant sentiment among adults in the country (74%) and becomes more notable from March 2023 to March 2024 (+43 percentage points)

Around three-fourths of the adult population do not see the need for charter change, regardless of timing. This opinion is echoed by small to big majorities in the various areas and classes (69% to 82% and 58% to 89% respectively). https://pulseasia.ph/updates/march-2024-nationwide-survey-on-charter-change/

The House of Reps, as expected, is screaming (in a manner of speaking) na black propaganda lang ang survey results, misleading daw and biased ang mga tanong, at kung ano-ano pa. To which Pulse Asia President Ronnie Holmes coolly replied:

“We have been running the questions for 20 years,” he said. https://www.philstar.com/headlines/2024/04/01/2344369/pulse-asia-stands-survey-results

Of course the HoReps are defensive: they just practically railroaded the HoR’s Resolution of Both Houses #7 (RBH7) allegedly because econchacha is what the people want and need.  Introduced on Feb 17, the House got it past public hearings, debates, first reading, second reading, and third reading, and approved it 288-2 with two absentions by March 20. Pwede pala ‘yon, just ONE MONTH to process a resolution into approval by 3/4 of all its members! Amazing race ba?

EASTER MONDAY morning I caught a Teleradyo newsclip of a Rep perorating on why he doesn’t believe Pulse Asia‘s numbers and that a plebiscite is still the way to go. Hmph! Hindi naniniwala sa scientific findings ng Pulse Asia on chacha 2024 pero bilib na bilib sila sa Pulse Asia noong 2022 nang inilabas ang high numbers ni BBM vs. Robredo. C’mon, Reps, be consistent naman. This insane chacha mission isn’t doing the House (Lower nga) or Nation any good. Take off the blinders.

SAMANTALA, SA SENADO

“Eye-opener” ang Pulse Asia survey, sey naman ni Senate Prez Migs Zubiri. A sign that the Upper House is right not to make chacha madali.

“This survey shows it is an unpopular move, with almost nine out of 10 Filipinos opposed to changing the Charter,” Zubiri said.

Meanwhile, those supportive of charter change drastically went down from 41 percent in March 2023 to just eight percent in the latest survey.

“These are things to be weighed in and carefully put into consideration by the subcommittee and the Senate as a whole,” Zubiri said.

Zubiri said the Senate will conduct hearings around the country to gauge the public’s sentiments about charter change. https://politiko.com.ph/2024/03/30/dapat-di-minamadali

I’m not sure I get what the Senate Prez is saying. More hearings in Luzon, Visayas, and Mindanao will only tell the Senate what we’ve all already heard from the “experts” pro and con, ad infinitum, all through the first three months of the year. Pulse Asia has just given us already a gauge of public sentiment — 7 of 10 Pinoys don’t want chacha EVER. Now it’s the Senate’s turn to vote, and show us that the Upper House is one with the People at this critical point in time.

Surely it’s not possible that 18 of 24 senators would dare defy public sentiment, not when midterm elections are imminent.  And if the Senate insists on more public hearings, and more time to “gauge public sentiment”, and more time to woo anti-chacha senators with ex-deals and the like, it would be like the Upper House were hoping over time to sway public sentiment to a YES, and, even, that the Senate were set on pandering to the Palace and, yes, to the Lower House.

What happened to the independence of the Upper House? Suddenly I’m missing Tito Sen. I’m not sure why, but I imagine HE would have said NO to econ chacha from the first, walang nego-nego, walang miting-miting sa palasyo.  Of course there’s still also the People’s Initiative card that HoR-PIRMA is forever threatening the Senate, us, with. But saying YES to econchacha just because parang it’s a done deal, what the prez wants the prez gets, is like the Senate saying conceding that We the People have no say on the matter. C’mon, senators, level it up naman!

THINK AGAIN

I dare say that the spike in numbers of Pinoys saying NO to chacha, from 31% to 74% over the period March 2023 to March 2024, was actually triggered by the President’s embrace of the first cousin’s chacha campaign in December 2023.

On the matter of Marcos and chacha, we have long memories.

We haven’t forgotten that in the tatay’s time as president, we saw the 1971 Constitutional Convention hijacked, and the result was the unlamented 1973 Martial Law Constitution, complete with term extensions galore and the walang-kamatayang Amendment 6.

THIS time, the anak as president played hard to get muna, then changed his mind, even asked the Senate to do it without the “fuss” that attended the House’s fake People’s Initiative. All in aid lang daw of lifting economic restrictions, the better daw to adjust to a globalized world, never mind that it’s not what the economy needs. Like father like son.

Nakaka-deja-vu, di ba.

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Charter change does not address the binding constraints https://www.bworldonline.com/

Why won’t they heed people’s voice vs Cha-cha? https://www.manilatimes.net/

Pulse Asia Survery: Filipinos Prefer Foxtrot Over Cha-cha!  https://adobochronicles.com/

Alexei & Ninoy, Yulia & Cory

It’s fascinating how Alexei’s story is so very much like Ninoy’s. Pareho silang nakulong (on trumped-up charges) for standing up to a tyrant, parehong nag-hunger strike sa kulungan, parehong nakalipad na sa ibang bansa — Navalny to a hospital in Germany to recover from poisoning by Russian security, Ninoy to Texas for heart bypass after suffering 7 years 7 months in jail — pero bumalik pa rin sa lupang tinubuan, lupa na ipinaglaban nilang mapalaya, bahala na kung makulong muli o mapatay. At napatay nga: si Ninoy binaril noong umuwi from exile in 1983, si Alexei tila linason uli kailan lang, habang nakakulong.

Even more fascinating is the unfolding story of the widow Yulia Navalnaya. She has promised to carry on Alexei’s fight to free Russia from Putin’s one-man rule, much like Ninoy’s widow Cory Aquino took on Marcos and led the fight to free the nation from martial law. But Yulia’s circumstances are different. She has been threatened with arrest if she returns to Russia.

Cory left Boston Tuesday and was back in Manila by Wednesday, just three days after Ninoy’s murder at the airport. There was no attempt to stop her, I guess because Marcos and Ver were prepared to deny culpability, complete with a silenced scapegoat. Pumayag pa nga na imbestigahan ng Agrava Board ang patayan, at nang idiin nito in November 1984 na the killings were a military conspiracy that went all the way up to Ver (his loyal Armed Forces Chief of Staff), Marcos got the Sandiganbayan to acquit them all anyway in December 1985, which led Cory to run for President in snap elections, at which Marcos cheated, so Cory called for civil disobedience, which culminated in EDSA and the dictator’s escape from Malacañang.

Yes, the Marcoses are back anyway, but that’s another story, and uniquely Filipino I daresay. Altho I imagine that the grief is the same, maybe even worse, with Russian authorities insisting that Navalny died from “natural causes” and refusing to release the body unless his mother agrees to a secret burial. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/02/22/navalny-body-secret-burial-yulia/